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This is the key question asked after the failed auction by Merrill Lynch and Bear Stearns. They tested the market, sought price clarity, and received the worst of all possible news.
NO VALUE. The exercise is surely to be repeated in subsequent months. How does a market respond? The process within more easy reach require stocks to halt trading during disequilibrium imbalance, as sellers mass, buyers vanish, and price is unclear.
The real fun will be with the derivative leveraged paper, where the guys in propeller hats set up leverage, are stuck with cancerous assets behind the paper, and value is without any question whatsoever negative.
The power of leverage cuts both ways, with profit and loss. Get ready to watch a skein of court lawsuits by investors against Bear Stearns and a host of other Wall Street firms.
They misrepresented the asset behind the bond. Watch for a bold attempt by WS to have new legislation to exempt them from bond related law suits.
Hedge funds have begun to fall like birds in a drought. Recent news points to Horizon ABS and United Capital as blocking redemptions.
Lawsuits follow. Their investors are told they cannot get their money out!!! Wall Street firms already have covenants written into their bond issuances, limiting liability and investor rights to make claims against fraudulent misrepresentation.
This is yet another sign of the times with clear large letters spelling out the Mussolini Fascist Business Model, where government and industry collude to pilfer pillage and profit.
The USGovt is endorsing limited liability by inaction from regulatory bodies. The failed auctions might result in unclear value to be determined.
Watch the impact to balance sheets and collateral posted for loans. This will become interesting, much like watching a developing industrial fire, as chemical caches explode unexpectedly.
Formal statement of balance sheets might assign at some time in the future no value on certain collateralized bonds. They are priced by convenient goony models dependent upon collusion by rating agencies.
Failed auctions expose the shenanigans and might disable these very models. Vast writeoffs are certain on the mortgage bonds.
The size of writeoffs depends on the level of corruption permitted by the authorities. So far they have given gigantic extensive latitude to distort prices higher than true value.
With lower mortgage bond principal comes higher bond yield. With higher bond yield comes higher mortgage rates. With higher mortgage rates come lower home purchase demand.
With lower demand comes lower home prices. The dominoes are falling in ultra-slow motion. With lower home values, less spending results.
With lower home values come more decisions to sell properties. With more homes up for sale come an aggravation to inventory strain. With colossal bond damage, related bond and asset sales will ensue.
The meltdown is underway. Bear Stearns lit the fire. Wall Street in its infinite stupidity, recklessness, and cliquish behavior endorsed the torching of their colleague's bond basements.
THE USDOLLAR AND GOLD WILL REACT TO THE CONTAGION AND CRISIS. THE CHINESE ARE RESTLESS, HAVING SOLD A SCAD OF USTBONDS IN MAY, AND PROBABLY JUNE ALSO.
THEY PROBED FOR WEAKNESS AND SAW IT IN SPADES. COERCION NEXT So without a doubt the USDollar is the weakest link, and the USTreasury Bonds are the traded security behind the bloated black hole that best symbolizes the current Administration and its economic stewardship.
Don't expect a Democrat Admin to be any better. They will be dumbstruck by the bonfires in the bond world and the wreckage in the housing world.
Republicans always seem to enable corporate profiteering with impunity. See a dozen examples in the last six years.
Democrats always seem to attempt to help the little guy, but harm the system in critical ways. See higher tax rates resulting in lower tax revenue.
The nation is stymied, crippled, and heading to the cleaners. My label has been 'The Receivership Economy' from dependence upon bubbles, debt default, and Old Europe pulling the strings.
Without a doubt the USDollar is the weakest link, as numerous holes must be plugged to in the leaking dike. Gold and silver must be prevented from a zoom rise in price, since they serve as warning signals.
Crude oil and natural gas must be prevented from a zoom rise in price, since they directly strain the USDollar. The long-term interest rates must be prevented from jumping higher.
The stock market indexes must be prevented from falling sharply, since the public sees stocks as a visible signal of wealth. The USDollar must be prevented from a sudden freefall.
The entire Wall Street and US Federal Reserve leadership is in the process of soiling their skivvies. The best investment might be in Depends Adult Diapers.
These guys, leverage mechanics in financial engineering, destroyers of economies, snake oil salesmen of cancer ridden asset bonds, they are sweating bullets, pooping their pants, staring into space, stunned by failed auctions and uncertain valuation, wondering about leverage implications and debts called by creditors.
These are no longer exaggerations written in tabloids, but rather front page news items. Feeble denials by USFed Chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secy Paulson have rendered each a marginalized institution.
Is that possible? No, but their commentary is of marginal importance and substance anymore. They are the official denial mouthpieces.
A better viewpoint toward reality can be found by the Bank for Intl Settlements out of Switzerland the central bank among central banks and by the private citizen Alan Greenspan.
He can now speak freely about the wreckage he permitted under his watch, and the sequential bonfires lined up and now torched.
Countless scandalous worthless doomed mortgage bonds were dressed before vanity bureaus, prepped for sale, lipstick on pigs. The BONFIRE OF THE VANITIES will provoke a sharp economic, banking, and political response.
Restrictions on hedge fund redemptions might soon be matched by restrictions on mortgage bond sales, especially their highly leveraged Collateralized Debt Obligation derivatives employing fold crazy leverage.
Imagine heavy leverage against a corroded base! The weakest link in the above list of assets to protect is the USDollar.
The untold story is that the strain on credit derivatives has put tremendous pressure on the USDollar, which cannot hold.
We have a crisis building. The USDollar in my view cannot be defended in the face of a credit derivative crisis. Look for coercion next, in the form of threats to those wishing to liquidate vast tranches of bonds.
It is a certainty. It has past precedent. In my view, the credit derivative events began with Fat Freddie Mac and Fatter Fannie Mae.
They are holders of the absolute worst quality of all mortgages and related bonds. In fact, typically the worst quality loan portfolios are packaged into bonds, as the best are kept for servicing and higher reliability in returns without delinquencies and defaults.
Their stocks will be delisted only after the insiders and aristocrats evacuate the FNM and FRD from their portfolios.
Bear Stearns is the visible GROUND ZERO of the mortgage bond bonfire. Wall Street maintains mostly buy recommendations!
Translated: the fires are spreading, the contagion is realized, the system is weakening. CRUDE OIL AS CANARY In the face of a weak link USDollar, a fast eroding Petro-Dollar defacto standard enforced by Persian Gulf principal players, one should expect the crude oil price to hurtle higher.
It is doing precisely that. Blame had been put on the Nigerian situation, but that is but a false facade and distorted assessment intentionally given.
The links have always been firm between the USDollar and crude oil. The alchemists cannot control them, while at the same time keep their controls in place on the vast price capping required throughout the Western bond world on long-term interest rates.
The wizards of financial chemistry have an even greater more powerful adversary in Mother Nature. The depletion of the large elephant oil fields inflicts harm on the supply side of the crude oil equation, thus putting extra pressure on the USDollar to the downside.
It could very well be that the crude oil will signal the breakdown in the USDollar. The crude oil market has become a veritable clusterhump of mismanagement and grotesque disturbance to the efficient mechanisms so urgently needed to provide adequate supply.
All kinds of inter-connected financial and derivative models link crude oil price to the USDollar exchange rate.
Depletion interferes with the smooth operation of the price capping intricate workings. Now we hear of repeated questions on whether the crude oil price has peaked.
The exodus into commodity stocks will resume in the second half. They claim a USEconomic recovery will come. IT WILL NOT.
Leading Economic Indicators look really bad. Capital goods orders have turned down, rendering the strong April figure as an outlier blip.
GOLD AWAITS In time, the push upward in crude oil price will be matched by a push upward in the gold price. The two are strongly correlated.
A systemic bonfire has been lit, the effects of which will undermine the confidence in the US banking system, the US bond arena, and the USDollar itself.
To date, the authorities have succeeded in tossing a wet blanket over the gold market. See the monumental official gold bullion sales out of Europe.
In time, analyses will surface that the entire US banking system is at risk, possibly to repeat the Japanese decade outcome.
The USDollar DX index has a horrible looking chart. The US Federal Reserve auctions are not being welcome or well bid. A deadly bear triangle is evident in the USDollar DX index multi-year chart.
Meanwhile, gold holds its support levels with strength. Gold seems to lurk near the bonfires, awaiting the exodus, as gold will offer more security.
The bond bubble is in the process of a grotesque grand grave bust. Alternatives to the corrosive USTreasury Bonds are actively being sought, pursued, and secured.
Commodity investments are the new rage among central bank investment funds. These are analyzed more fully in the July Hat Trick Letter.
A breakdown is not far on the horizon. As the year TNote yield relaxed a bit toward 5. Next is a new down cycle. The English raised by 25 basis points to 5.
The euro flirts with , even as the British sterling currency seems to prefer at least a exchange rate as a base. The USDollar is poised for round after round of assaults.
The bonfire will affect the crippled buck, which stands as perhaps the weakest link, along with the crude oil price. By the later months of , the world will be focused directly on the bonfires in the US bond arena, questioning the entire US financial sector, its inflation directives, its housing bubble bust, its absent manufacturing base of stability.
Take comfort in its resilience. And by the way, watch gold but ride the silver vehicle, which will outperform gold by a ration, as usual.
Central banks dump gold, but nobody dumps silver. The powers scramble to meet delivery in silver, in fact. Also the very large commercials are in deep trouble on their short silver positions, unable to cover at these lower silver prices.
Looming over the wreckage, sure to worsen, is the hamstrung USFed and the compromised US Dept of Treasury. Conditions must worsen much more before the USFed takes drastic action.
A fly on the wall at panicky meetings behind the scenes has the best spot of all. Envy the fly. THE HAT TRICK LETTER PROFITS IN THE CURRENT CRISIS.
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You are one of the few remaining intellectuals with such capacity intact. As a result, he is now recommending that investors allocate any new monies to stocks rather than to gold.
This will come as something of a shock to gold's defenders, since Russell for several years now has been favoring gold over equities.
But, on the basis of his technical analysis of gold and stocks' relative strength, Russell has changed his mind. Russell bases his technical analysis on a ratio of the DJIA to gold.
This ratio hit its all time high in mid , for example, at around Whenever this ratio comes down, as it did between and , it means that gold is outperforming stocks.
But when it rises, as it has since May , it means that stocks are winning the relative strength battle. It's not just that the ratio has been rising over the last year that has led Russell to change his mind about stocks' prospects relative to gold.
It's that the ratio recently broke above its long-term declining trendline. It could mean if the trend continues that the Dow is going to surge to the upside while gold does almost nothing.
It could mean that the Dow goes up faster than gold goes up, but they both rise. It could mean that both go down, but that gold goes down faster than the Dow.
But basically, it simply means that on a relative strength basis, the Dow may now be in a period where it outperforms gold. For the individual investor, there's nothing like the "fondle factor" of bullion.
All of that puts people off from buying gold in its physical form, "except for the large investors who could afford such," he said.
The very tangible nature and high "fondle-factor" that is associated with gold has traditionally made it an investment that people tend to actually hold in coin or bar form.
There are "paper" representations of gold available, including futures contracts, certificates, pool accounts and exchange-traded funds, said James Turk, founder of GoldMoney.
They provide investors with exposure to the gold and silver price but have "counterparty risk," he said. On the other hand, the "physical metal does not have any counterparty risk when you own and store it safely," he said.
Trading vs. And right now, "times are changing in the physical gold bullion investment market," said Nadler. Investors "who wish to acquire gold have a much larger universe of products to choose from.
One "emerging trend" that Nadler observed is that U. Most small and medium investors opt for these types of coins, he said.
Meanwhile, gold bars are a "popular way to buy precious metals in bulk," he said. A league of their own Then there's the whole market of rare coins.
Collectors want to be the only one that has that coin, the only one that has that set [and] they want to look at a wide variety of coins," he said.
But if you look at the art market, which is a good way to gauge the rare coin market, "it has exploded recently," according to Beahm. Bill Rummel, a coin collector and investor for decades, predicts that "all collectables are ready for ignition -- again.
Fine line Of course, don't forget the plethora of other investing options for the precious metal. There's the gold futures market, mining shares, ETFs that invest in gold itself and others that invest in mining companies, and custodial gold products.
Some of these choices straddle the fine line between physical and paper ownership of the metal. First, it's important to remember that gold is money and should therefore go in an investment portfolio's cash component, said Turk.
And cash is "liquidity and savings. Then, the question to ask yourself before you decide in which form you should buy gold is "are you a speculator, investor or saver?
And "mining companies are more risky than physical bullion as there is extra risk in owning a company that mines or explores for gold than owning gold itself," he said.
Meanwhile, gold custodial products can be a cost-effective way to buy and hold physical metal. GoldMoney's goldgrams represent ownership of a portion of the gold held for the company's customers in a secure vault.
Physical drawbacks Of course, physical gold ownership isn't without its own challenges. Turk points out that that smaller bars or coins can sell for high premiums over the spot price because of fabrication and handling costs.
There are also "storage headaches," he said. Homeowner policies make no provisions for bullion coverage. Storage costs at specialized vaults or banks can run form 0.
When asked if the contents of the boxes are insured, she didn't offer any specifics, but said, "we don't insure what we don't know.
According to the FDIC, unless a bank is found to be negligent in the way it handled or protected your safe deposit box, don't expect the bank or its private insurance to reimburse you for any damage or loss.
Saefong is MarketWatch's assistant markets editor, based in San Francisco. Although the American PM markets are certainly very important, there is a massive world out there beyond our country.
We Americans have been incredibly blessed with unparalleled per-capita wealth, and it is great to see other nations around the world thriving economically too.
In any country more free enterprise ultimately leads to better standards of living and more surplus capital to invest.
Some of this capital will certainly find its way into gold, the ultimate long-term investment throughout human history.
And even though per-capita levels of investment outside the US generally remain small by American standards, since those living outside the US outnumber Americans by over 22 to 1 they will collectively have a huge impact in the world markets.
So it is important for us to try to understand how gold is perceived outside of the United States. As every speculator knows, it is price action that shapes perspective.
When prices are high and rising, people get excited and want to deploy more capital. When prices are low and falling, people get bored or scared and walk away in disgust.
So by viewing gold through the lenses of major local currencies worldwide, we can get a good idea of how locals are likely to perceive it and whether they are likely to buy or sell.
They span every populated continent and encompass how the vast majority of the world's population views gold. Some currencies are obvious choices, like China's and India's since they represent such huge populations.
Other currencies, like Brazil's and South Africa's, were chosen because they are leading regional currencies on their respective continents. In years past these charts have covered the entire gold bull to date, but this time I zoomed in to the last two-and-a-half years to increase our resolution on current technicals.
If you would still like to see the original full-bull versions, our newsletter subscribers can access these high-resolution charts covering this entire bull in the private Subscriber Charts section of our website.
These charts also have a few peculiarities of which you should be aware. First, the gold prices are forex-implied, they are not true local gold quotes.
Unfortunately actual local gold-price histories from around the world are notoriously difficult to find. Thankfully they are not necessary though due to the way the gold markets trade around the world today.
Since the US dollar has been the world's reserve currency for decades now, the dollar gold price still dominates world gold trading for the time being.
Virtually everywhere on the planet, the local gold price is still a function of the dollar gold price and the exchange rate between the local currency and the dollar.
These forex-implied gold prices are not perfect, but in my experience they're very close. Second, in all these charts a rising red currency-exchange-rate line means that the local currency is gaining in value against the US dollar.
A falling currency line means it is losing value against the dollar. In order to make all these charts consistent, in some cases I had to use the inverse of customary currency quotations.
For example, the Japanese yen is always quoted in yen per dollar. But if charted this way, a rising yen would mean a falling chart line.
This is counterintuitive, so I changed all exchange rates to the dollar cost per local unit of currency. Finally, all gold prices are in local currency per troy ounce, even if this is not the local custom.
Gold in Asia, for example, is typically quoted in price per gram on local exchanges. But in the West we are used to seeing gold prices quoted in troy ounces.
In order to keep all these prices and charts consistent and comparable, all gold prices are rendered in local currency units per troy ounce regardless of custom.
After building all these charts to examine global gold technicals since , some common themes emerged that you should keep in mind while you look at these charts.
First, gold enjoyed a massive upleg from mid to mid, the mightiest of this bull market by far. Since this upleg culminated in the major interim highs of May , gold has been consolidating in tightening wedges between support and resistance all over the world.
While this long consolidation has certainly tested the patience and commitment of PM traders, it is really very bullish.
Across the globe gold is now trading at high levels that would have been considered a nearly impossible dream only a couple years ago.
But today these same high levels, since we have seen them for over a year now, seem routine and boring! This consolidation is acclimatizing traders around the globe to considering today's prices as normal.
It is building a rock-solid base from which the next major upleg will soar heavenwards. As these wedge-shaped consolidations all over the world tighten, gold will soon have to break out one way or the other.
So as you digest these charts, look at the parallels between gold in these major currencies and realize the high consolidations are forming new bases to support gold's next big upleg.
Over the 14 months since, the consolidation has done its job of crushing euphoria and gradually shaking weak hands out of this market.
Although even American gold enthusiasts are generally despairing and negative today, this chart is really impressive.
Gold has been climbing higher on balance since early as its rising support line shows. Resistance is descending to create a consolidation wedge, but this is only because of May 's euphoric surge.
If that short-lived surge is erased, gold would actually be within a nice uptrend channel today. In any case, the highest-probability-for-success time to buy any asset within a secular bull is when its price temporarily falls back down to its day moving average and support.
Today gold is in just such a bullish place. It is from situations like today's, where gold is unloved and languishing low technically, that mighty uplegs launch.
Note above that gold traded sideways throughout most of , consolidating like today, before it soared in its biggest upleg of this bull.
Consolidations precede big uplegs. Finally, note the US Dollar Index here, the red line. The dollar is so low today that it is within spitting distance of hitting new multi-decade all-time lows!
Just this week, it came within a penny of hitting a year high versus the ailing US dollar! Provocatively it just made a new high back in late February of this year that even slightly exceeded its May high.
So Canadian gold investors haven't had to wait as long for new bull-to-date gold highs as the rest of the world. Despite the wild currency fluctuations, the same key technical pattern is readily evident in Canada gold.
It has been consolidating sideways for over a year now, its rising support creating a wedge. It is from this base created by this consolidation that the next major gold upleg will launch.
And with Canada gold at its support and under its dma, it is a great time for Canadians to buy gold. Brazil gold has been coiling in a tightening wedge too, and intriguingly it is the only one of these currencies where gold has apparently broken out to the downside.
A recent surge in the Brazilian real drove gold lower under support. But I suspect this downside gold action will be short-lived, as the overdue global gold rally will quickly push Brazil gold back up into its wedge.
When euro gold breaks out of its wedge and powers higher, European investors could really accelerate this upleg as they chase gold. While euro gold is down under its dma and at its support today, the narrowing mouth of its consolidation wedge is the tightest out of all these currencies.
This means that euro gold will have to break out soon, one way or the other. With the euro itself near an all-time high against the US dollar, Europeans are going to be getting more and more nervous about their US investments.
Currency losses can quickly crush any gains achieved overseas. What better place than gold to park capital if fears of big dollar losses and new all-time lows start to grow in popularity.
The same currency-crisis dynamics should affect British investor thinking too, as the pound just made a year high versus the US dollar.
If British investors see further gains in the pound, they are going to be less comfortable owning US stocks and bonds and may start buying gold instead.
All these multi-decade currency highs relative to the dollar ought to frighten the US Fed and Washington.
Fiat-paper currency is a very fragile thing based on nothing but faith in the issuing government. It is quite literally a confidence game.
If the Fed keeps printing money like there is no tomorrow and the dollar keeps falling to new all-time lows, it really could create a crisis of confidence in which gold will thrive.
It's a race to worthlessness! And yen gold just made its latest bull-to-date high in mid-April. While it has indeed been consolidating, the eroding yen has created a rising wedge in Japan gold.
Japan is destroying its own currency through irrationally low interest rates and excessive money-supply growth in order to subsidize its export industry.
This is incredibly stupid. Free markets only thrive when monetary policy doesn't play favorites between savers and debtors. Since savers are getting slaughtered in Japan, more and more are flocking to the immutable stability of gold.
The spark that ignites the next global gold upleg could very well prove to be Japanese investors starting a heavier migration into gold to protect their enormous savings.
For a decade or so ending in July , the yuan was pegged to the US dollar. So up until this point the yuan gold bull was a perfect mirror of the dollar gold bull.
It is also at support and under its dma today, the ideal time to buy technically. In the West when investors face a stock bubble bursting, some flock to gold as a safe haven of protection from the turbulent stock markets.
And since the Chinese have a much deeper cultural affinity for gold than we Americans will ever have, I suspect they will pile into gold once their accelerating stock slide starts really scaring them.
If this happens, overall global gold investment demand will really start growing. The Chinese investors sure aren't rich by American standards, but there are so many of them that the capital they collectively control is massive.
Coincidentally, the Shanghai Gold Exchange is launching a new gold-trading service for individual investors that will make it far easier for Chinese investors to buy and keep physical gold.
Gold is such a huge part of Indian culture that it is probably the world's biggest growth market for gold investment demand. Rupee gold is also in a wedge, and it is tightening just like the other wedges and will soon break out.
If the Americans, or Europeans, or Japanese, or Chinese start buying, rupee gold will soar in short order. And interestingly Indian wedding season is approaching at the end of summer, after the harvest.
Gold is a huge part of these marriage rituals as wealth in the form of dowries is often converted into beautiful gold jewelry for the brides.
While in the States we tend to separate jewelry gold from investment gold, in India jewelry often serves as investment.
With Indian gold demand on the verge of its usual seasonal surge and looking very bullish technically under its dma, Indian investors will be buying gold too.
At least our support line has been rising which is a subtle confirmation of bullish underlying technicals. But this weakness has made gold an even better buy in Australia in technical terms than it is in much of the rest of the world.
And Australian investors are much more likely to buy gold than American investors. It is just more accepted down under since such a big fraction of Australia's economy and exports is driven by the natural-resources industry.
So despite the flat Australia gold support, the necessary gains to drive renewed interest in investing in gold won't need to be as great as in the States where gold is still largely reviled by the mainstream.
Yet despite South Africa's relative strength and natural-resource-intensive economy, its Marxist government has somehow managed to drive the rand even lower versus the falling dollar.
This certainly isn't easy, as only the Japanese government has had similar success in debasing its own currency. While Africa's investment community is not very large, it naturally gravitates to gold since the continent's fiat currencies are such a mess.
Right now South African investors have a rare opportunity to buy gold under its dma and at support, the best time within a secular bull.
Once again with these ten charts digested, major themes exist in gold that are common all over the world.
Gold soared in a massive upleg ending in mid Since then gold has been consolidating, generally grinding sideways. This consolidation has gutted sentiment and made traders really negative on gold, but it is really quite bullish.
It has convinced traders that today's gold prices are the new norm, so once they start buying again gold will launch much higher from here. Within any secular bull driven by a continuing worldwide supply-and-demand deficit, the very best times to buy in probability terms are just like today.
Prices fall under their dmas and down to support, and sentiment remains pretty bearish since there haven't been any serious price gains in some time to attract in the momentum-seeking bulls.
All over the world today we are seeing this, great gold prices in technical terms coupled with lackluster sentiment that cannot persist.
At Zeal we are unrepentant hardcore contrarians. We add new long positions when others don't want to, when they are paralyzed by fear or worries.
Just as markets abhor extremes of greed at major tops, they don't allow fear extremes to last too long either. Instead a major rally happens to obliterate the fear.
All over the world, gold looks like it is on the very verge of such a major rally. Odds are it will turn out to be a major or perhaps even massive upleg.
As always, gold's renewed strength will spill over into silver and the precious-metals miners. We've been aggressively buying elite gold and silver miners in recent months in order to lay in positions ahead of this highly-probable new upleg.
The bottom line is all over the world as these charts revealed, gold appears to be near the end of maturing consolidations.
It won't take much buying to break gold free from its tightening consolidation wedges and then technically-oriented traders will pour in and drive it higher.
Mined supply and even central-bank sales just cannot keep pace with relentlessly rising investment demand worldwide.
All around the globe, investors have great technical reasons to add new long positions in the precious-metals realm right now. Sooner or later, just as in , this new buying will reach critical mass and gold will soar again.
Today's irrational fears will rapidly evaporate and we'll be off to the races in gold's next major upleg. Adam Hamilton, CPA Jul 6, So how can you profit from this information?
Please consider joining us each month for tactical trading details and more in our premium Zeal Intelligence service at www. Questions for Adam?
I would be more than happy to address them through my private consulting business. Thoughts, comments, or flames?
Fire away at zelotes zealllc. Due to my staggering and perpetually increasing e-mail load, I regret that I am not able to respond to comments personally.
I will read all messages though and really appreciate your feedback! This week in gold Jack Chan www. The one which matters What is special about this breakout, is that it occurs after over a year long of consolidation.
The whipsaws during this zigzag correction have been the most challenging relative to all previous corrections, and have likely sidelined many traders, and caused many to be skeptical.
That is exactly what a bull market needs. Our trading plans call for incremental buying while keeping risk manageable.
What you see here is our simple trading model which provides us the signals and set ups to be either long, short, or in cash at any given time.
Entry points and stops are provided in real time to subscribers, therefore, this update may not reflect our current positions in the markets. Trade at your own discretion.
SUMMARY von Douglas Gnazzo Stock markets are still floating on a sea of paper fiat liquidity. I remain skeptical and cautious of asset bubbles and crack up booms.
After every crack up boom comes a crack down bust, as surely as night divides the day. Bonds have been in a bull market for decades, and their time has come.
I expect any and all surprises to be for higher interest rates, which means lower bond prices. Caveat Emptor. It looks like the dollar rally is over.
Interest rates are rising around the globe, as is inflation. If rates continue to rise in other countries it will put further pressure on the dollar.
Lower rates that defend bonds will take what little support remains away from the dollar. They have painted themselves into a corner.
Oil is going strong. Gas has been getting killed. It usually puts in a summer low. In the cold of the coming winter you can bet prices will go up.
Commodities in general are going up. Precious metals are the place to be, as paper fiat grows weaker by the day. Higher rates are the warning of what comes.
Subprime is just the tip of the derivative iceberg that waits to melt down and release its toxic waste. Real estate has not yet seen reality, but it too is coming.
Physical gold and silver is safer than the pm stocks, although the stocks have much more potential for gain, however, with added potential comes additional risk.
Newmont Mining closed out its hedge book and its new President had this to say: Newmont's CEO Mr. In addition, we are focused on delivering improvements in our operating performance and cost structure going forward.
We intend to realize the value from a significant portion of our non-core, Merchant Banking portfolio and use the proceeds to fund the development and growth of our core gold business.
Just a thought. Das ästhetische Element wird von der Interviewpartnerin geliefert. Dan Norcini's die Goldbären wenig inspirierende COT-Interpretaion.
It really did not matter much that it came a day late since the gold bears would not have liked the data any more today than they would have liked it last Friday.
The report confirmed our analysis from the previous data release that the bottom was either in or nearly in for gold.
They were buying from the funds who were liquidating longs on the price break to the tune of 9, That price drop brought in other funds to play the short side who were then ignominiously forced to cover as gold went straight up from what subsequently proved to be a double bottom and a bear trap.
Once the opportunistic bears saw that occur, they lost both their resolve and their conviction and ran. This is exactly what Jim has repeatedly said when he mentions that the shorts must have speculator selling into which to make their buy backs.
If they do not, then they get squeezed out and the price moves upward as a result. All that is necessary to prevent these bear raids on the gold price, and by consequence on the gold shares, is for the spec longs to simply do nothing.
If they refuse to sell, the bears are dead. That is why margin is such a killer for those who do not know how to safely employ it. A player who has sufficient reserves and whose gold or gold shares are paid for does not need to sell and can simply ignore the hot shot short sellers who MUST HAVE PANICKED GOLD BULLS or who will fail.
Sadly we live in a trading world now dominated by technical analysis geeks who lose their convictions nearly every time we get a new price print and make these periodic gold bear raids possible.
The fact that gold GAPPED above the 20 day moving average and bested the 40 day moving average during the pit session changes the technical posture of this market.
All eyes are now on the dollar as it sits a mere 14 points away from critical support. We are sceptical about the "commodity super cycle" theory that has become widely accepted over the past couple of years.
Or, to put it more aptly, we have been long-term bullish on commodities since and remain so to this day, but we are sceptical about the explanations generally bandied about for the secular upward trend in commodity prices.
In particular, we do not believe that the rapid growth of China and India is the primary driving force behind the long-term bull market in commodities.
Due to technological advances the production of commodities tends to become more efficient over time. Our theory, therefore, is that commodity bull markets lasting years "super cycles" only occur as a result of inflation, that is, they only occur when rampant money-supply growth over a lengthy period causes a large and prolonged decline in the relative value of money.
And everything we've seen over the past several years indicates to us that the current bull market in commodities is no exception, especially the fact that the unprecedented gains in commodity prices have been led by and accompanied by unprecedented increases in global money supply.
Of course, anyone who thinks that the price indices spewed by governments are valid indicators of inflation will be in complete disagreement with our view.
But even if we put aside, for a moment, the likely effects of dramatic monetary expansion on commodity prices, there doesn't appear to be much evidence to support the view that the "commodity super cycle" is being driven by the rapid growth of China and India.
We say that because GLOBAL demand for commodities has not risen at an unusually fast pace over the past several years. For example, according to a recent BCA Bank Credit Analyst report the global demand for copper rose by only 1.
In fact, since the beginning of the commodity boom it seems that was the only year of above-trend growth in worldwide commodity demand. China's commodity demand has certainly increased rapidly, but this has largely been offset by reduced demand elsewhere due to the shifting of manufacturing facilities from the higher-cost developed world to the lower-cost developing world.
Part of the answer is that the initial response to higher prices was not increased supply as would generally be expected, but reduced supply due to industrial action strikes and government theft also known as nationalisation.
Another part of the answer has been put forward by Frank Veneroso. What we have been undergoing is a speculation to the point of manipulation, perhaps involving collusion, across a whole array of related metals markets.
I argue that it is as though the famous episode of the Hunts in silver decades ago has now been taken to a power.
Veneroso claims to have solid evidence that the massive speculation in commodities has involved creating the appearance of shortage by removing physical metal from publicly-reported inventories.
Most commodity bulls dismiss Mr. Veneroso's analysis out of hand because he has been making similar claims for a couple of years and prices haven't yet tumbled.
However, just because he hasn't yet been proven right by the price action doesn't mean his reasoning is wrong.
Given what has happened in the world of credit and credit derivatives CDO, CDS, etc. We therefore acknowledge that Mr.
Veneroso is probably partially right, although in our book he can't be completely right because he refers to an absence of inflation during the current cycle.
In particular, in his report he says that the commodity price rise of the past several years has occurred "without an accompanying generalized inflation" and that "inflation has been minimal since late ".
Well, someone who believes that inflation is minimal at a time when the supplies of 18 of the world's top 20 currencies are expanding at double-digit rates does not understand inflation; and someone who doesn't understand what's happening to money cannot possibly have a thorough understanding of what's happening to prices.
Unfortunately, Mr. Veneroso's well-researched report is tarnished to some extent by his lack of understanding of inflation and his resultant willingness to use government price indices when adjusting for the effects of inflation.
As mentioned near the start of this discussion, we maintain that inflation money supply growth is the primary driving force behind the long-term upward trend in commodity prices that began in the early part of this decade.
We also think that Mr. Veneroso's analysis has some merit because it can be shown that base metal prices have made huge gains in inflation-adjusted terms over the past few years even using realistic estimates of inflationary effects.
We therefore perceive considerable downside risk in the base metals over both the short- and intermediate-term.
The base metals sector is acutely vulnerable to a severe shakeout, but we expect these metals to remain in long-term upward trends relative to the paper currencies of the world.
Their upward trends relative to gold probably won't continue for much longer, though, because they are now extremely over-valued in gold terms.
One-month free trial available. Die Inder diskutieren noch This is one question that the apex Reserve Bank of India is debating these days. Globally, India is ranked sixth in the top ten list of the gold and currency reserves.
The first three positions are being held by Japan, Russia and China. Hong Kong, Germany and France wrap up the list of ten leaders.
These days, speculation is rife on whether India should hike the proportion of gold in the country's foreign exchange reserves. In the last few years, the foreign exchange reserves in India have risen significantly while gold reserves have remained static.
But even though the forex reserves have been going up, gold tonnage has remain static. Today, the proportion of gold in forex reserves has come down to a pitiful low of 3.
The foreign exchange reserves in India invested in multi-currency, multi-asset portfolios. This is in fact something similar to international practice.
But experts say this is not the right thing to do, especially in a country like India, which is the largest consumer of gold.
According to former Reserve Bank of India Deputy Governor S S. Tarapore gold as a reserve asset has a longer and more enduring history than flat money, and thus deserved a better representation in the country's forex reserves.
He has argued that it is time India increased the gold reserves in tune with the booming economy.
But this is not a decision, which the government would find easy to take. Moreover, if India hikes the gold reserves, it could also affect the bullion market in a big way.
In fact, several central banks like in China and Russia are now considering of increasing their reserves. Der hat im bisherigen Jahresverlauf die in ihn gesteckten Erwartungen noch nicht erfüllt.
Vor allem der Abbau von Goldbeständen durch einige europäische Notenbanken sorgte zuletzt für fallende Notierungen.
Ein sich verbesserndes fundamentales Umfeld, das vielversprechende Kursbild und saisonale Aspekte sprechen nun aber dafür, dass in den kommenden Monaten wieder goldene Zeiten für Edelmetall-Anhänger winken.
Der Goldpreis steht vor einer saisonal starken Phase Schon in den vergangenen Tagen hat sich der Goldpreis sehr robust präsentiert.
Marktteilnehmer sehen die anhaltende Schwäche des Dollar als Hauptgrund für das Comeback der Feinunze. Schon in der Vergangenheit entwickelten sich der Goldpreis und der Dollar in den meisten Phasen konträr zueinander.
Diese Abhängigkeit wird das Edelmetall auch in den kommenden Monaten unterstützen, prognostizieren die Rohstoffanalysten der Credit Suisse.
Zudem würden eine stagnierende Minenproduktion sowie die steigende Nachfrage seitens der Anleger und der Notenbanken für einen höheren Goldpreis sorgen.
Gerade die asiatischen Zentralbanken haben bislang nur einen sehr geringen Teil ihrer Reserven in Gold angelegt, was sich über kurz oder lang ändern soll.
Ein nachhaltiges Überschreiten dieser Marke würde aus charttechnischer Sicht ein Kaufsignal bedeuten.
Für eine Fortsetzung der Gold-Hausse in den kommenden Monaten spricht auch die Tatsache, dass sich der Kurs des Edelmetalls in der zweiten Jahreshälfte meist überdurchschnittlich gut entwickelt - so war es zumindest in der Vergangenheit.
Vor allem in den jetzt vor der Tür stehenden Monaten August und September wurden in der Regel starke Kursgewinne verbucht.
Das vergangene Jahr darf mit seiner schwachen Wertentwicklung im Sommer durchaus als Ausnahme gelten. Investieren nach dem Kalender Der Zertifikatemarkt bietet mittlerweile zahlreiche Möglichkeiten, auf steigende Goldnotierungen zu setzen.
Eine bei Anlegern sehr beliebte Variante ist der Kauf von einfachen Goldzertifikaten, bei denen die Kursentwicklung der Feinunze fast exakt abgebildet wird.
Zu berücksichtigen sind dabei allerdings die Wechselkursänderungen. Bleibt es dabei, dass ein steigender Goldpreis tendenziell von einem fallenden Dollar begleitet wird, geht ein Teil der Gewinne automatisch verloren, wie zum Beispiel die Performance eines ungesicherten Goldzertifikats der UBS deutlich zeigt.
Auf Jahressicht verbuchen Anleger hier ein Minus von rund zwei Prozent, obwohl der Goldpreis im gleichen Zeitraum um mehr als fünf Prozent gestiegen ist.
Mit Quanto-Zertifikaten lässt sich das Währungsrisiko problemlos ausschalten. Allerdings bieten die Emittenten diesen Service nicht kostenlos an.
ABN Amro verlangt als einer der günstigsten Anbieter eine Absicherungsgebühr von derzeit 2,4 Prozent im Jahr, wobei die Höhe der Kosten variabel ist und unter anderem von der Zinsdifferenz zwischen den USA und dem Euro-Raum beeinflusst wird.
Anleger sollten sich also stets überlegen, ob die zu zahlende Versicherungsprämie für das Risiko eines Dollar-Verfalls angemessen ist.
Diese Frage stellt sich auch bei Gold-Discountern, die bei Wahl eines konservativen Höchstbetrags Cap positive Renditen ohne steigenden Goldpreis ermöglichen.
Quanto-Discounter mit der Chance auf eine attraktive steuerfreie Rendite fehlen zurzeit. Hier sollten die Emittenten ihre Produktpalette erweitern.
Having said that I hope my readers are at least not surprised by the sharp moves in PM shares this week. Those wanting to make sense of this move can point to a slew of industry positive news this week: the proposed three way merger between AUY, NTO and MDG, good drilling results from EGO and SLW, and last but not least, NEM clearing its hedge book.
What is clear is that PM stocks are breaking out big time. Volume was very high in big caps such as NEM and AEM, indicating institutional interest.
A daily chart of HUI is shown below; similar set-ups are repeated in almost all its components. Perhaps more importantly, the HUI:GOLD ratio has also broken out cleanly in the weekly chart.
I can now say with a high degree of confidence that the correction since last May was over. The immediate resistance level in HUI is HUI has had a habit of taking tries to overcome a significant resistance level as it did for in early April.
So is likely to fall on the next try. By the same token, some back-and-forth may be necessary before the old high of can be overcome. GDX or a good mutual fund.
I share that opinion. In mutual funds, my favorite and the one I still own is UNWPX US Global World Precious Mineral Fund. Besides two PM funds, US Global also has some outstanding funds in natural resources PSPFX which I also own and emerging markets.
It also manages off-shore accounts for Endeavour. The stock was once such a high flyer that it was on the IBD list and attracted a lot of momentum players.
Due to earnings disappointments, it has fallen out of favor and has been flirting with the DMA for some time. It may still face some tough comps this quarter but after that I expect it to respond to PM price action with good leverage.
Gold futures end lower for first time in four sessions By Myra P. Read more. And "concern that difficulties in the U. September copper tacked on 1.
Inventories and indexes Gold warehouse inventories fell by 50, troy ounces to stand at 7. Silver supplies were unchanged at million troy ounces, while copper supplies dropped 87 short tons to 21, short tons.
Indexes tracking the metals sector declined Wednesday, defying broad strength in the U. Polya Lesova is a MarketWatch reporter based in New York.
In this update we will therefore confine ourselves to highlighting the important points of difference between the two metals.
One important development over the past week or so for silver has been the improvement in its COT structure that has at last given a major buy signal.
Silver has been weaker than gold in recent months, and broke down from its long-term uptrend in force from a lot earlier than gold, back in April, to enter a more damaging intermediate downtrend that culminated in a brief but vicious plunge below its long-term moving averages late last month, although this plunge did not take it below the support level mentioned above.
The silver chart still looks weaker than gold, as unlike gold it has broken down below its long-term and day moving averages, although as this break was marginal it may be highly deceptive.
Certainly, when the charts of silver and gold are placed alongside each other, the potential for a big move in both is manifestly obvious.
The other strategy is wait for silver to break above the Distribution Dome shown on the chart before buying, when it will be a significantly safer buy, although the COT chart indicates that it is a safe enough buy now.
This is a rare technical event that typically spawns a big move - and with the long-term moving averages still trending upwards, the odds favor a breakout to the upside.
A fascinating point to observe, which has been remarked upon before, is that gold has found support and turned up at or above its day moving average throughout its bull market, only breaking below it once in mid, and now it is positioned just above it - and the much more commonly used day.
However, for various reasons this danger is thought to be receding. Not least of these is the recent COT data.Wir wollen bei einem Herbsttreffen Poker Icm alten und neuen World Of Tanks Fsk wieder an einem Ort versammeln, um uns auszutauschen, inhaltlich zu diskutieren und die nächsten Schritte zu gehen. Wolski, Claudia. Leipzig: Kiepenheuer, Rummel, Stefan.